Must Hit By Slot Machines
Each gaming jurisdiction requires all slot machines to be registered and all slot manufacturers must submit their programming and math charts to the state gaming office, such as the Nevada Gaming Control Board. While the state may only require a minimum payback of 86-percent, most video poker and slot machines pay more. Sep 18, 2013 Must hit progressives. Like David said. Our locals have quite a few of these, people tend to keep a close eye on them. The low progressive is a must hit by $50.00. If you can get to a machine with either must hit fairly high, your chances are good of hitting. Aug 22, 2018 Ainsworth progressives are one of many “must hit by” machines that have an ever-increasing presence in casinos “Must-hit by” or “mystery” progressives are all the rage in casinos these days. You can’t blame the casinos for putting an ever increasing amount of these types of slot machines on their gaming floors. On progressive slot machines, a percentage of each wager is added to the jackpot or jackpots. Three-reel slot machines usually have a single progressive jackpot on the top payoff, and you must bet maximum coins to be eligible. On a three-coin dollar slot machines, for example, you can’t win the progressive if you bet only one or two coins. Dec 06, 2018 No casino is going to tell you exactly what a given slot machine is set to. So, you may have to resort to industry averages. The following table shows the averages for Clark County, Nevada (where Las Vegas is). You can see for penny slots, which must-hit-by jackpots tend to be on, the overall house edge is 10.77%.
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Introduction
A must-hit-by jackpot, or mystery jackpot, is one that is guaranteed to hit by a certain point. So, there are two good things about a large jackpot:
- The jackpot itself is larger.
- The probability of winning it is greater.
As with any progressive game, at some point the jackpot becomes large enough to sway the odds in the player's favor. This page will examine these 'target points' on some new slots by Ainsworth with mystery jackpots. I also have a page on the same subject about WMS mystery progressive slots.
General Rules
Following are generally how must-hit-by progressives work.
- The jackpot starts at a defined minimum amount.
- A point at which the jackpot will hit is randomly chosen on a uniform distribution between the starting value and maximum possible jackpot.
- A certain percentage of money bet, known as the 'meter rise,' will be directed towards the jackpot.
- When the meter crosses the predestined win point, the player will be awarded the jackpot.
This is how the Ainsworth games appear to work. To be specific, the ones I played at the Red Rock casino have these specifications:
Ainsworth Red Rock Slots
| Jackpot | Minor | Major |
|---|---|---|
| Starting point | $20 | $350 |
| Must hit by | $50 | $400 |
| Rate of increase (based on bet) | 0.45% | 0.20% |
Please be advised that other Ainsworth games may have different criteria than the above. The tables on this page apply only to the type of games I played at the Red Rock casino on May 9, 2013.
This page assumes that a jackpot is equally likely to trigger anywhere between the starting value and must-hit-by maximum. This seems to be true for all makers except AGS. The reader should be warned that AGS must-hit-by jackpots almost never hit until they are near the must-hit-by point. For example, the large jackpots are supposed to hit by $5,000, but it is rumored in the advantage player slot community that they rarely hit below $4,990. So, please do not apply the information in this page to AGS machines.
progressive, or mystery jackpot, is one that is guaranteed to hit by a certain point.Math
The general formula for the Target Point can be given as:
t = m × (h + r) / (h + 2r), where:t = Target Point
m = Max jackpot
r = Rise of meter rate
h = House edge of game (taking into consideration the average value of the progressive)An unknown piece to this equation is h, the house edge of the game. No casino is going to tell you exactly what a given slot machine is set to. So, you may have to resort to industry averages. The following table shows the averages for Clark County, Nevada (where Las Vegas is). You can see for penny slots, which must-hit-by jackpots tend to be on, the overall house edge is 10.77%.
Clark County Slot Win to 11/1/2017 to 10/31/2018
| Denomination | Casino Win (pct) |
|---|---|
| $0.01 | 9.97% |
| $0.05 | 5.54% |
| $0.25 | 7.11% |
| $1.00 | 6.34% |
| $5.00 | 5.51% |
| $25.00 | 4.99% |
| $100.00 | 6.22% |
| Megabucks | 12.34% |
| Multi-denomination | 5.26% |
| Total | 6.82% |
Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board, Gaming Revenue Report for 12-month period ending October 31, 2018 (PDF, see page 4).
Although the information from 2001 is a bit dated, you may wish to also consider the returns of random games I sampled in my page on Slot Machine Odds in Las Vegas. All things considered, I think it is safe to assume a house edge of 8% to 12% in Las Vegas. The nicer the casino and closer to the Strip the casino is, the higher the house edge will generally be. Outside of Vegas, you're on your own.
Ainsworth Target Points
The first table shows the Target Point for the Major jackpot, according to the house edge on the game and the amount of the Minor jackpot. In most situations, it will need to be about $392.
Ainsworth Major Jackpot Target Points
| Minor Jackpot | House Edge | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | |
| $25 | $395.51 | $394.94 | $394.20 | $393.22 | $391.84 |
| $26 | $395.50 | $394.92 | $394.19 | $393.20 | $391.81 |
| $27 | $395.49 | $394.91 | $394.17 | $393.18 | $391.77 |
| $28 | $395.47 | $394.90 | $394.15 | $393.15 | $391.73 |
| $29 | $395.46 | $394.88 | $394.13 | $393.12 | $391.69 |
| $30 | $395.45 | $394.86 | $394.11 | $393.09 | $391.64 |
| $31 | $395.43 | $394.84 | $394.08 | $393.05 | $391.59 |
| $32 | $395.42 | $394.82 | $394.05 | $393.01 | $391.53 |
| $33 | $395.40 | $394.80 | $394.02 | $392.97 | $391.47 |
| $34 | $395.37 | $394.77 | $393.98 | $392.92 | $391.39 |
| $35 | $395.35 | $394.74 | $393.94 | $392.86 | $391.30 |
| $36 | $395.32 | $394.70 | $393.89 | $392.79 | $391.20 |
| $37 | $395.29 | $394.66 | $393.83 | $392.71 | $391.08 |
| $38 | $395.25 | $394.60 | $393.76 | $392.61 | $390.93 |
| $39 | $395.20 | $394.54 | $393.68 | $392.49 | $390.76 |
| $40 | $395.14 | $394.46 | $393.57 | $392.34 | $390.53 |
| $41 | $395.06 | $394.37 | $393.44 | $392.16 | $390.24 |
| $42 | $394.96 | $394.24 | $393.27 | $391.91 | $389.86 |
| $43 | $394.83 | $394.07 | $393.03 | $391.57 | $389.31 |
| $44 | $394.65 | $393.82 | $392.69 | $391.06 | $388.49 |
| $45 | $394.37 | $393.44 | $392.16 | $390.24 | $387.10 |
| $46 | $393.88 | $392.78 | $391.18 | $388.69 | $384.24 |
| $47 | $392.86 | $391.30 | $388.89 | $384.62 | $375.00 |
The second table shows the Target Point for the Minor jackpot, according to the house edge on the game and the amount of the Major jackpot. In most situations, it will need to be about $48.
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Ainsworth Minor Jackpot Target Points
| Major Jackpot | House Edge | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | |
| $350 | $48.68 | $48.51 | $48.28 | $47.97 | $47.53 |
| $352 | $48.68 | $48.50 | $48.27 | $47.96 | $47.51 |
| $354 | $48.67 | $48.50 | $48.26 | $47.95 | $47.49 |
| $356 | $48.67 | $48.49 | $48.25 | $47.93 | $47.47 |
| $358 | $48.66 | $48.48 | $48.24 | $47.92 | $47.44 |
| $360 | $48.65 | $48.47 | $48.23 | $47.90 | $47.41 |
| $362 | $48.64 | $48.46 | $48.21 | $47.88 | $47.38 |
| $364 | $48.63 | $48.45 | $48.20 | $47.85 | $47.35 |
| $366 | $48.62 | $48.43 | $48.18 | $47.83 | $47.30 |
| $368 | $48.61 | $48.42 | $48.16 | $47.79 | $47.26 |
| $370 | $48.60 | $48.40 | $48.13 | $47.76 | $47.20 |
| $372 | $48.58 | $48.37 | $48.10 | $47.71 | $47.13 |
| $374 | $48.56 | $48.35 | $48.06 | $47.66 | $47.05 |
| $376 | $48.54 | $48.32 | $48.02 | $47.60 | $46.95 |
| $378 | $48.51 | $48.28 | $47.97 | $47.52 | $46.81 |
| $380 | $48.47 | $48.23 | $47.90 | $47.41 | $46.64 |
| $382 | $48.42 | $48.16 | $47.81 | $47.27 | $46.40 |
| $384 | $48.36 | $48.08 | $47.68 | $47.08 | $46.05 |
| $386 | $48.27 | $47.95 | $47.50 | $46.78 | $45.49 |
| $388 | $48.13 | $47.76 | $47.20 | $46.27 | $44.42 |
| $390 | $47.90 | $47.41 | $46.64 | $45.21 | $41.67 |
| $392 | $47.41 | $46.64 | $45.21 | $41.67 | |
Patin a roulette femme blanc. Example: You suspect the Minor jackpot may be high enough to play. The Major jackpot is at $370 and you assume a house edge of 10%. The table above shows the Target point is $48.13.
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Jackpot!
In playing one of these games to determine the rate of increase I won a minor jackpot. I just had to take a couple pictures to share with you.
Further Reading
Advantage Play Must Hit By Slot Machines
- The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives, by Frank Kneeland
- Million Dollar Slots by Peter Liston